Ripple Effects of Economics Within Health
Tariffs on drug products would seriously impact the US health care supply chain, which is highly integrated with global production. A recent survey by Black Book Research provides invaluable information on the industry’s mindset. The research, surveying 200 professionals in the areas of pharmacy, manufacture of medical equipment, and health supply logistics, discovered that 82% of them were gearing up to make major monetary and operational changes.
Major findings published in an announcement made during March include:
- 82% of those polled believe that hospital and health system prices are going to increase by 15% or more over the next six months.
- 69 percent think that drug prices would rise at least 10% as a result of Chinese active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) tariffs.
- Most organizations are looking to obtain alternative or domestic suppliers to help counteract tariff effects.
Industry-wide Strategic Shifts
Having to contend with policy unpredictability, pharma companies are rebasing their global logistics. Pharmaceutical manufacturers in Europe are said to be expediting shipments to US distribution hubs amid fears of being swept up in retaliatory trade. The decision is not just about piling up inventory, experts argue, but also about continuity of supply in the event of delays from regulation or price increases due to the tariff imposition.
Long-term strategic shifts under consideration are:
- Diversification of the production centers to lower-risk areas
- North American production capacity investments
- Geopolitical risk analysis and contingency logistics planning
Political Commentary and Perspective
When queried on Air Force One on March 30, Trump reaffirmed his position on trade, saying, The tariffs will be much more favorable than those nations were to us.
His administration is continuing to argue that past trade deals hurt American industries and are providing the grounds for taking a more protectionist position.
However, experts and economic research centers call attention to the fact that sweeping import tariffs on drugs may serve to do more damage than good. The Brookings Institution makes the case that while tariffs would promote domestic production over the long term, their immediate impact on drug prices and availability would be drastic—not to mention that more than 80% of the APIs that are utilized in drug production here are imported.
As April 2 draws near, market players within the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors are bracing themselves for another incoming disruption and rebalancing, looking to get ahead of evolving geopolitical and trade currents.